- Monday 7/3: Didn’t play
- Tuesday 7/4: Won $60 on $115 of entries ($55 loss)
- Wednesday 7/5: Won $7 on $52 of entries ($45 loss)
- Thursday 7/6: Didn’t play
- Friday 7/7: Won $247 on $76 of entries ($171 gain)
- Saturday 7/8: Won $48 on $200 of entries ($152 loss)
- Sunday 7/9: Won $64 of $88 of entries ($24 loss)
Down $105 on the week. As I said in the last post, that run I went on winning close to $1400 in a little over two weeks playing the cheapie games was definitely not sustainable, and I had a little mean reversion the last few days.
Other than a decent day Friday I didn’t have any other days up, and I played my biggest day of the year on Saturday with $200 of entries that came up pretty flat.
During the Saturday day games (the 1:00 / 4:00 games), I played $80 of entries that netted a loss of $32 and I thought about calling it a day because I didn’t like any of the Arcade Mode games for the night games (none had any slates with more than 3 games, and those games are harder to have an edge in). While there were no Arcade Mode ones that I liked, there was a standard game that covered both the 7:00 games and the west coast 10:00 games (an 8 game slate).
I entered a $40 entry, 433-player contest. Winner gets $2,500. I thought that looked decent and made up one squad, stacking the Dodgers. A couple minutes before it started I went to make a lineup change and noticed that of the 433 entries available, there were still 100 or so empty. That’s a lot. I figured only about 50 of these would actually get filled, leaving somewhere around 50 blank entries in a 433 entry contest where the top 104 are in the money.
A Draftkings contest with a bunch of blank entries is like a stacked deck in Blackjack. If you know how to count cards, you up your bet when the remainder of the deck is filled with aces and royal cards and the advantage on that hand has flipped from the house to the players. Draftkings makes money by paying out just a little less than the sum of the entry fees in a given contest, but that only works if every contest fills. If the contest doesn’t fill up, they might only break even or possibly lose money. Even an unskilled player can have an advantage in that situation, and if you really know what you’re doing those games are ideal.
A couple minutes before it went live I said screw it and tripled my bet for a total of $120, entering it two more times with the same team.
I ended up 1.5 points out of the money (again because they count the god damn win as 5 points, I’ve been hosed on that more than anything else this year). That sucks but I would slam that game again in a New York minute if I get the chance.
I know I took a month and a half off while studying for the CFA, so this isn’t really half of a full season, but if I’m gonna take stock I’ve turned the $350 I’ve deposited into Draftkings since the beginning of the year into $1,249.89 in about 6 weeks of playing. I’m pretty happy with that.
If this all goes pretty well the next few weeks I might consider giving myself a much bigger bankroll for September. For MLB DFS the two points in the season where the most amount of stupid money is floating around is in April and September.
April is pretty obvious. During the first month a bunch of people get excited for baseball, play a little Draftkings to try it out, and most of them lose their money pretty quickly and quit playing.
September is huge because that’s when regular season NFL games start. By far the number one source of revenue for DFS sites is football. Starting in September, a bunch of idiots will put a bunch of money into Draftkings to play NFL DFS, and they’ll have nothing to do with it between Sundays, so a lot of them will play MLB for shits and gigs. September is open season on these sheeple, and if all goes well that’s when I’ll start to up the amount I’m playing each day.