- Sunday April 9th: Won $75 on $15 of entries for $60 net
- Monday April 10th: Won $30 on $15 of entries for $15 net, bringing total winnings to $125
- Rest of week: Complete, total, shit. $114 worth of entries with zero winnings
I’m on a hard cold streak right now. What’s worse is I started to get a little cocky after I cashed in 5 of the first 8 days I played, going for a couple $25-$35 games. That’s not a lot relative to some of the degenerate sports gambling I do for fun, but the point was that I was going to take this more seriously, and last week I didn’t really stick to that. I’ll probably go back to no more than $20 a day this week.
I cashed Sunday and Monday with pretty solid squads, and since then I don’t think I’ve had a 5 player stack put up more than 40 points. I’m gonna need a minimum 50 from the stack if I have a chance at scoring. Pretty much every one of the last few days I’ve had at least one pitcher put up a stinker, which just kills the floor of the team.
One day I played around with a slightly different strategy where instead of stacking 5 from one team and then taking 3 other bats from assorted teams, I went 4 and 4 from two different teams as like a double stack strategy. It didn’t work that day, but if there are two teams I like and the positions fit together decently, I’m going to use it again in the future.
I’m chalking these last couple days up to bad luck and not switching anything up yet. I said in my intro post that half the teams I make with a 5 player stack strategy won’t be very good – hitter performance in baseball is incredibly volatile on a day to day basis and depending that much on one team is a hit or miss way to play. Through the first week, that wasn’t the case. Even on days I didn’t cash I was close, and I think I lulled myself into a sense of complacency. This is very much a “never too high, never too low” type of business. You have to have a high tolerance for uncertainty of outcomes and accept that a lot of this, just like real investing in financial markets, comes out to luck.
Speaking of all that, it’s been way too long since I’ve quoted Sam Hinkie’s resignation letter to the Sixers on this blog.
I love that quote about a player with an estimated 10% to 20% chance of becoming a star. Basically he’s saying that if a team drafts a player with what they think to be a 20% chance of becoming a superstar, that’s an incredibly great pick. Guess what, 80% of the time it won’t work out. There’s way too much randomness. The only way to reduce the role of luck is to make as many of those types of picks as possible until one hits.
If I stack a team that I think has a 25% chance of going off for 10 runs on a given day, and the players are priced on Draftkings like there’s only a 1% chance of that happening that’s also a great play. 3 times out 4 it won’t work out. The 1 time out of 4 that it does should pay off more than enough to compensate for the losers. What’s great about this little project is I have the opportunity to make these teams every single day for the whole season, while a draft in any sport only comes around once a year.
Side note: Nicholas Nassim Taleb is one of my favorite authors and I’d recommend anyone reading this blog with an interest in learning more about this kind of stuff to read both Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan (Mila Kunis and Natalie Portman don’t get it on in this one sorry guys).
Hopefully I’ll have a little better luck this week. I’ll need it.